humanity at risk: The point of no return was crossed and ocean warming can not be stopped

 

 

Definition:

 

A point of no return in a space-time continuum is a place and / or time at which an event or an ongoing action can not be stopped, or from which it is impossible to change a decision.

Announced since the 1992 conference in Philadelphia, the end of our civilization is getting better and announced its probability increasingly shameless évidente.Si the protagonists of the current neoliberalism, such as those we boast the virtues of the Plan Nord at Quebec, the importance of economic growth by using oil as a development everywhere in the West, or defenders of economic alliances such as NAFTA, for example, play the ostrich before the people by continuing the myth of infinite capitalist growth, the scholars themselves, just given a very discordant note to their symphony « soon » complete: ocean warming.

Ocean warming is now unstoppable following record temperatures of 2014. That’s the finding announced on 16 July 2015 by scientists worldwide in the report entitled « The State of the Climate ». The study, which brought together 413 scientists from 58 countries, said that climate change has contributed to the rising waters, atteignants an unprecedented level.

The researchers also show that the impact of higher ocean temperatures will be felt for centuries, even if immediate efforts to reduce carbon emissions were undertaken. « Even if we could freeze the greenhouse its current level, the sea would continue to warm for centuries and millennia; and that warming will cause its expansion and therefore its elevation, « says the Guardian, oceanographer of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) Greg Johnson.

The ocean warming is permanently installed
Wherever ocean temperatures are unusually warm, and the West Coast of the US, the excess heat produced warmer winters, causing drought conditions, and melted the snowpack. According to Tom Karl, director of the national centers of environmental information from NOAA, this surplus could also trigger severe storms.

The absorption capacity of the oceans will change nothing. Although they may retain 90% of the excess heat caused by increased greenhouse gas emissions, they can not control their temperature. That is why they have known in 2014 of temperature records along with a rise in their levels of 6.7 centimeters from 1993. Greg Johnson uses a metaphor to illustrate the problem of ocean warming: « It’s like a freight train. It must be given a great impetus to launch it. But it is on the way now and will continue to advance long after we stopped pushing. « 

THE IPCC REACHING THE PORTRAIT … The disaster is looming on the horizon

 

« The IPCC’s conclusions are based on data from the best of 2005. Given the heaviness of this organization, which brings together 2,500 researchers from 130 countries, including all publications is subject to consensus, the next report not published before 2014. But « the latest observations confirm that the worst scenarios of the IPCC is in the process of being realized. The emissions have continued to rise sharply and the climate system is changing already outside the natural variations within which our societies and our economies are built, « said the scientific committee of the conference. IPCC forecasts anticipate a temperature increase between 1.1 ° C and 6.4 ° C by the end of the century compared to pre-industrial times.

Stefan Rahmstorf presented a study that sea levels could rise within a range of 75 cm to 190 cm by 2100. Either way beyond the IPCC predictions ranging from 18 cm to 59 cm. They – and the IPCC was careful to emphasize – not taking into account changes in the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica. Or would their role in major reality through melting ice but especially their « flow » into the sea. « This phenomenon is much more massive and much faster than we thought, » says Eric Rignot, professor UC Irvine California.

Lucka Kajfez Bogataj, University of Ljubljana (Slovenia), has peeled all climate studies published recently. She concluded without hesitation: « The impact of global warming is earlier and faster than expected. « Between 1990 and 2006, the world experienced the thirteen warmest years since 1880, which marks the beginning of the industrial age, she cites the example. « 

[…] « Present in Copenhagen, the IPCC chairman, Rajendra Pachauri, is not out of his reserve duty, but at nine months of maturity, he found » useful this conference reminds that political A more serious crisis than the economic crisis.  » James Hansen, the famous climatologist at NASA who was one of the first to warn in 1988 of the dangers of global warming, was more direct: « the view has to be sure of one thing. Scientists are clear. There are no big uncertainties about the film before us. And politicians can not hide behind alleged unknown for not acting. « 

According to George Monbiot, renowned columnist for the British newspaper The Guardian, about climate change, it is time to stop talking about « change » to describe a disaster (13 March 2009).

More recently, the same George Monbiot clearly says it all: we must cease to emit CO2 or go to the disaster (21 March 2009): « The world will not adapt and can not adapt: ​​the only adaptive response to a global shortage of food is starvation. Of the two strategies is reducing emissions, not adaptation, which turns out to be the most realistic option, even if it stretches the concept of feasibility to its limits. As emphasized Dieter Helm, the required action is now unlikely but « not impossible. Ultimately, it is a question of human welfare and ethics. « 

Yes, it may already be too late – even if we reduce and ethics. « 

Yes, it may be too late

– Even if we reduced emissions to zero tomorrow –

to prevent a warming of more than two degrees, but we can not behave as if this was the case. For thus we would be doing this certain prediction. As difficult that fight may be, improbable chances of success they are, we can not afford to give up.

Clearly, scientists have done their job. To policies now to make theirs … but do you think that politicians will move?

THE ALARM BELL IS LAUNCHED LONG TIME AGO

 Global climate experts present new evidence Friday of the amount of warming in a report intended to guide States towards a major international climate agreement in 2015.

 

Their objective is to contain global warming below the threshold of 2 ° C since pre-industrial times. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) meeting in Stockholm, was to finalize its report to guide the country towards a broad international agreement in 2015.

The IPCC, co-winner of the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007, was to present in 2013 the « summary for policymakers » of the first phase of its new state of the premises, on the purely scientific aspects. Two volumes (on possible impacts by sector and region and ways to mitigate them) were to follow in spring 2014 before a summary in October 2014.

 

After the failure of the Copenhagen summit in 2009, these warning signals are likely to boost international climate negotiations. A new global agreement is promised for 2015.

+ 0.8 ° C since the beginning of the twentieth century

« The scientific evidence of (…) Climate change has strengthened year after year, leaving little uncertainty aside its serious consequences », said on Monday the chairman of the IPCC, Rajendra Pachauri. As the planet has already warmed by about 0.8 ° C since the beginning of the twentieth century, the conclusions of the IPCC may highlight the little room in which countries have to stay below the 2 ° C .

Based on contributions from 250 scientists and published studies, the first volume should confirm the man’s responsibility, revise upwards the expected rise in sea level and increased extreme events in some regions, such heat waves or heavy rains for example.

Slower rise from 10-15 years

This summary should also address the possible reasons for the slowdown in 10-15 years the rising thermometer. A « pause » apparent which for climatologists, is temporary and does not affect the warming trend in the long term.

Since 2013, this « summary for policymakers », a document of about thirty pages summarizing thousands of pages of the first volume, which is approved paragraph by paragraph in camera. « These discussions can be seen as the place where science meet, politics and communication, » said the head of communications of one of the NGOs present in Stockholm.

Climate experts presented the IPCC in 2013, their new report. Global warming, human responsibility, increase in extreme weather events, rising sea levels … their findings are worrying.

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THE FAMOUS IPCC REPORT IN 2013

The world climate experts presented in 2013, their new report in Stockholm. Gathered within the IPCC, they ensure that the responsibility of man in global warming is more certain than ever. Key findings of this new state of scientific areas.

– Human activity more blamed. It is now « highly likely » that human influence is the main cause of the warming observed since the mid-20th century, equivalent to 95% certainty in the precise terminology of the report. In its latest report, in 2007 this was 90% certainty.

– It increasingly heated, four scenarios possibles.Le IPCC considers it likely that the Earth is warming between 0.3 ° C, in the most optimistic scenario and 4.8 ° C by the end the century compared to the average temperature of the period 1986-2005. The high uncertainty depends primarily on the quantity of greenhouse gases that will be emitted into the atmosphere in coming decades.

– The temperature is already rising by 0.8 ° C since pre-industrial times. The Earth has already warmed by almost one degree in a century. « Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, » according to Thomas Stocker, Vice President of the IPCC.

– The weather is going to panic more. « Heat waves are likely to occur more frequently and last longer. With global warming, we expect to see the currently wet areas receive more rainfall and dry regions receive less, even if there will be exceptions, « according to Thomas Stocker. The IPCC experts have not however clarified certain aspects of these weather events.
  
– The sea level is expected to rise more than prévu.Le IPCC has revised upwards its projections on the major consequence of global warming. Scientists now believe that it can rise by an average of 26 to 82 cm by 2100 against 18 to 59 cm in the report 2007. Climatologists now better take into account a phenomenon still insufficiently studied there 6: flow in ocean coastal glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica.

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According to a report by researchers on climate, greenhouse gases have reached peaks of concentration in the atmosphere in 2014, while the world recorded a record temperature at its surface.

While we are experiencing a new episode of heat wave, researchers on « Climate State » (State of the Climate), reported Thursday that the temperatures recorded on the surface of the Earth broke records in 2014. These specialists also noted that the greenhouse gases that cause climate change have reached peaks of concentration in the atmosphere last year.

In their report published by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 413 scientists from 58 different countries reveal that the oceans also experienced last year temperature records while the sea level has reached its highest level. « Europe experienced its warmest year by far, with about twenty countries that have beaten previous records, » the report said.
« Many countries in Asia have experienced annual temperatures among the ten warmest. Africa has recorded temperatures above average over most of mainland Australia beat a temperature record for the third time, after a peak in 2013 « . In Latin America, Mexico experienced its warmest year while Argentina and Uruguay reached the second time temperature peaks.
Temperature-related exception, the eastern region of North America (including particularly Quebec) is the only area in the world to have experienced last year temperatures below average.

As for the global sea level, up 6.7 centimeters compared to the 1993 average, it has also reached a new record in 2014.
Report based on data collected by environmental monitoring stations and published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.